2010 predictions: How we’ll handle growth
In December, I read (and participated in) many articles predicting telecom trends for 2010. These stories got me thinking: what's ahead?
2010 will be the year smartphones shine, with more players, operating systems and fancy devices. Google's Nexus One is an early indicator of this trend.
A related trend is the explosion of application stores. Apple's App Store just crossed 3 billion downloads, and Google's just getting started. Soon, app stores may move to the cloud, opening access for developers around the world and fueling innovation.
As the amount and sophistication of smartphones grow, hackers will pay attention. Mobile security will become more prevalent, and the difference between PC and mobile security will become more apparent. Mobile security needs to be inexpensive and able to keep up with users who are always on the move (and therefore more dependent on their devices).
So there will be a stronger need for network-based security than device-based security. Your mobile network can always protect you (even when you're on the move), because it's always on. This is a good opportunity for network operators.
Because there will be more sophisticated smartphones, we'll see more mobile advertising, mobile content and mobile video. Companies such as Google and Apple are already moving on mobile advertising. More companies will become interested in monetizing mobile advertising revenue and targeting users, because sophisticated smartphones make it easier to enable such services.
Once mobile advertising is in place, you'll see an explosion in mobile content. Personalized, on-demand content bundles (like what Hulu and ESPN produce) will become even more popular. Consumers will enjoy higher quality video experience as the pixel resolution on smartphones increases and larger screen devices such as tablets appear on the scene.
To enable these trends to play out, we need to have the right technology in place. What do you think is on the horizon in 2010?
This growth in data traffic is already stressing the older generation packet core technologies. Service providers will be looking to upgrade this portion of the network to newer, next-generation platforms. For example, they'll look to migrate 3G packet core technologies to more intelligent, scalable evolved packet core (EPC) technologies with the twin goals being greater network efficiency and generation of new revenue opportunities.
Also, Ethernet backhaul deployments will continue to accelerate, as will the fiber-richness of the radio access network (RAN). The developing world will continue to wrestle massive demand for subscriber growth, increasingly looking to emerging markets. According to the ITU, nearly 75% of subscribers globally now come from emerging markets (non-OECD).
These networks will continue to look somewhat different from most developed markets in that they are more heavily TDM/SDH based, and rely in large part on microwave backhaul. The exception is China where there is considerable fiber deployment all the way to the cell site.
Business, residential, wireline and wireless services will continue to converge. Look for smartphones to deliver video phone calling and video conferencing in 2010. Increasingly intelligent networks will access and validate subscriber information across business, residential, wireline and wireless networks. They'll enforce the appropriate policy and quality of service (QoS) treatment. We're really just at the beginning of personalizing services, especially in wireless networks.
Also, the Nortel bankruptcy and end-of-life of virtually all asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) switches is creating an increased sense of urgency for wireless and wireline carriers to migrate off the remaining legacy ATM switches in their networks.